There is a common thread running through the 2016 political and electoral landscape in Europe and Americas. Despite marked differences in situations on the ground, the common psyche that gripped the voter mindset yielded to unexpected, if not some unsavory, electoral outcome. The psyche I am referring to is the one that is borne out of fear, uneasiness, anxiety, anger and uncertainty, and immigration played a significant role in shaping up this psyche. As a result, many of the national polls this year produced a global blueprint that seemed to be encompassed by more isolationist and inward-looking viewpoint.
First, the unexpected results of Brexit vote in June. In the run-up to the Brexit vote, pundits and pollsters predicted that "remain" bloc would prevail. However, the pro-"leave" politicians and lawmakers whipped up passion among the blue collar and rural White voters in Britain who had felt neglected, and even abandoned, by the Brussels bureaucracy. To make the matter worse, the five-year-old Syrian Civil War resulted in the largest migration of people in 2015 to Europe since the World War II. British voters, especially the working class White, already reeling under the radical demographic shift over the past few decades in their own backyard, had enough, and voted en masse for leaving the European Union. The Brexit vote is partly a reflection of Britons' frustration over absolute failure of European governments to handle a swelling migrant crisis, and the right-wing politicians such as Nigel Farage had exploited the popular anxiety to deliver one of the most fatal blow to the EU. The GOP candidate in the U.S. Presidential polls, Donald Trump, hailed the Brexit vote, and vowed to repeat it in the November U.S. polls.
Meanwhile, a landmark peace agreement was reached in late summer at Havana between the Colombian government and rebel negotiators aimed at bringing to an end one of the longest guerrilla wars in the western hemisphere that had killed at least 220,000 and displaced more than 8 million people. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos displayed enormous amount of political statesmanship and courage by striking this historic deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. President Juan Manuel Santos tried to sell this deal to the Colombian electorate in an October 2, 2016, referendum. Opposition leader and former President Alvaro Uribe led a last-minute, concerted right-wing effort to rally people against the peace deal. They labeled the peace deal an abject surrender to FARC's decades-old ruthless atrocities. Colombian voters, especially the rural electorate who had borne the brunt of civil war, were leery about the deal. Unfortunately, the government of Juan Manuel Santos focused on largely urban, educated voters in the run-up to the October 2, 2016, referendum, taking a large chunk of rural and displaced electorate as granted. Meanwhile, a strong right-wing alliance of former military leaders, now-disbanded former paramilitary militia leaders and politicians like Alvaro Uribe hit the ground, reaching to this almost disenfranchised segment of voters of rural poor and displaced people--now settled in urban areas--and explaining the negative consequences of the peace deal. The results in the ballot box was an electoral bombshell, leading the peace agreement to brink of tatters. At the end, a great opportunity to flip to a new page of Colombian history was missed by a disjointed pro-peace deal campaign that had failed to persuade a nervous and uneasy electorate to vote for the deal. Colombians narrowly rejected the peace deal in the vote.
On the same day, October 2, 2016, there was another vote on a different continent. This one was in Hungary where right-wing premier Viktor Orban's proposal opposing the EU's migrant settlement plan was on the ballot. Viktor Orban and his political allies did his best to exploit Hungarians' reasonable concern over the looming migrant crisis, and turned the October 2, 2016, referendum into an anti-EU referendum of sort. The result was a whopping 98 percent voting against the EU migrant settlement plan. However, the face-saver was the voter turnout. Since less than half of voters cast their votes, the referendum results didn't have any legal binding.
Finally, it's the U.S. presidential election that, despite all the pre-poll predictions, elected Donald Trump as the 45th U.S. President, exemplifying all the common traits of voter uneasiness, anxiety, anger and uncertainty--reflected in referendum after referendum held earlier in Britain, Hungary and Colombia--and handing a total rout to the established political order. Trump appealed to working class White voters with his populist message of abrogating trade deals like NAFTA and TPP. Trump also tapped the underlying anxiety over the rise of ISIL in the middle-east and beyond, and he was able to link it to the perceived policy failure of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Finally, Donald Trump pushed border control and immigration--especially illegal immigration--as a top-notch election issue that resonated among a large section of voters. On the election night, as Clinton campaign's one firewall after another fell to the Trump Tornado of voter disenchantment, it was amply evident that political pundits and observers not only misread, but absolutely failed to gauge, the underlying current of uncertainty, fear, uneasiness, anxiety and anger that was silently flowing through a vast swath of American electorate. However, the electoral setback of 2016 has its own sweet spot for the advocates of more integrated and mutually inclusive world. It gives them a unique opportunity to analyze the root cause of popular anger, anxiety and uneasiness and formulate a coherent and comprehensive strategy to address them.
First, the unexpected results of Brexit vote in June. In the run-up to the Brexit vote, pundits and pollsters predicted that "remain" bloc would prevail. However, the pro-"leave" politicians and lawmakers whipped up passion among the blue collar and rural White voters in Britain who had felt neglected, and even abandoned, by the Brussels bureaucracy. To make the matter worse, the five-year-old Syrian Civil War resulted in the largest migration of people in 2015 to Europe since the World War II. British voters, especially the working class White, already reeling under the radical demographic shift over the past few decades in their own backyard, had enough, and voted en masse for leaving the European Union. The Brexit vote is partly a reflection of Britons' frustration over absolute failure of European governments to handle a swelling migrant crisis, and the right-wing politicians such as Nigel Farage had exploited the popular anxiety to deliver one of the most fatal blow to the EU. The GOP candidate in the U.S. Presidential polls, Donald Trump, hailed the Brexit vote, and vowed to repeat it in the November U.S. polls.
Meanwhile, a landmark peace agreement was reached in late summer at Havana between the Colombian government and rebel negotiators aimed at bringing to an end one of the longest guerrilla wars in the western hemisphere that had killed at least 220,000 and displaced more than 8 million people. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos displayed enormous amount of political statesmanship and courage by striking this historic deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. President Juan Manuel Santos tried to sell this deal to the Colombian electorate in an October 2, 2016, referendum. Opposition leader and former President Alvaro Uribe led a last-minute, concerted right-wing effort to rally people against the peace deal. They labeled the peace deal an abject surrender to FARC's decades-old ruthless atrocities. Colombian voters, especially the rural electorate who had borne the brunt of civil war, were leery about the deal. Unfortunately, the government of Juan Manuel Santos focused on largely urban, educated voters in the run-up to the October 2, 2016, referendum, taking a large chunk of rural and displaced electorate as granted. Meanwhile, a strong right-wing alliance of former military leaders, now-disbanded former paramilitary militia leaders and politicians like Alvaro Uribe hit the ground, reaching to this almost disenfranchised segment of voters of rural poor and displaced people--now settled in urban areas--and explaining the negative consequences of the peace deal. The results in the ballot box was an electoral bombshell, leading the peace agreement to brink of tatters. At the end, a great opportunity to flip to a new page of Colombian history was missed by a disjointed pro-peace deal campaign that had failed to persuade a nervous and uneasy electorate to vote for the deal. Colombians narrowly rejected the peace deal in the vote.
On the same day, October 2, 2016, there was another vote on a different continent. This one was in Hungary where right-wing premier Viktor Orban's proposal opposing the EU's migrant settlement plan was on the ballot. Viktor Orban and his political allies did his best to exploit Hungarians' reasonable concern over the looming migrant crisis, and turned the October 2, 2016, referendum into an anti-EU referendum of sort. The result was a whopping 98 percent voting against the EU migrant settlement plan. However, the face-saver was the voter turnout. Since less than half of voters cast their votes, the referendum results didn't have any legal binding.
Finally, it's the U.S. presidential election that, despite all the pre-poll predictions, elected Donald Trump as the 45th U.S. President, exemplifying all the common traits of voter uneasiness, anxiety, anger and uncertainty--reflected in referendum after referendum held earlier in Britain, Hungary and Colombia--and handing a total rout to the established political order. Trump appealed to working class White voters with his populist message of abrogating trade deals like NAFTA and TPP. Trump also tapped the underlying anxiety over the rise of ISIL in the middle-east and beyond, and he was able to link it to the perceived policy failure of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Finally, Donald Trump pushed border control and immigration--especially illegal immigration--as a top-notch election issue that resonated among a large section of voters. On the election night, as Clinton campaign's one firewall after another fell to the Trump Tornado of voter disenchantment, it was amply evident that political pundits and observers not only misread, but absolutely failed to gauge, the underlying current of uncertainty, fear, uneasiness, anxiety and anger that was silently flowing through a vast swath of American electorate. However, the electoral setback of 2016 has its own sweet spot for the advocates of more integrated and mutually inclusive world. It gives them a unique opportunity to analyze the root cause of popular anger, anxiety and uneasiness and formulate a coherent and comprehensive strategy to address them.
