Since the beginning of the year, the deadly Ebola virus had struck West Africa with its full force of menace and macabre. The virus, first detected in 1976, has no cure or tested therapy yet, and is easily contagious through bodily fluids, saliva and blood. In March this year, the first Ebola case was identified in Guinea. In the weeks that followed, the virus swirled through Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, killing hundreds and creating a regional health crisis that these impoverished West African nations were neither prepared for nor capable of handling. So far, most of us are fixated on the medical cost of Ebola on the region and the related fear that it may spread to other parts of the continent and beyond. There is no denial that the medical cost of Ebola is more vivid and easier to see through compared to other forms of costs such as economic, social and political costs. As of August 19, 2014, according to World Health Organization (WHO) estimate, 1,229 people had died of the virus and 2,240 people were infected by the virus in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and in recent weeks, in Nigeria, the most populous African nation. On August 8, 2014, WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan declared Ebola a "global emergency", leading to calls by health care professionals, medical experts and policy makers for a cure and fast-tracking of experimental drugs. However, much less is said about the virus' disastrous effect on economic, social and political fronts.
Economic Effect
A bleak and blighted economic future holds for the affected countries, especially for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, as regular trade, commerce and free-flow of goods get stalled for months. Almost all the airlines have stopped flying to these three nations. There is already scarcity of agricultural produce, fruits, vegetables, meats and poultry in the affected regions, spiking the prices of basic commodities. Agricultural produces from Guinea's forested area in the southeast are already shunned, threatening the very livelihoods of subsistence farmers of the region. It's not if, but, how much the GDPs of these three nations will shrink in the short-term. It's anybody's guess how long the regional economy will be in a catastrophic morass and how deep the economic wound will inflict the region as the countries will be forced to stretch themselves thin by allocating more resources to stem the spread of the disease and treat the people sickened by the virus. The international community can't shirk its responsibility to address the issue anymore. World Bank should lead in establishing a multinational task force to:
a. Assess the scope of economic devastation due to Ebola
b. Calibrate a unified, comprehensive and collaborative response to the dire economic situation
c. Engage with financial institutions to streamline the process of disbursing cheap personal and business loans in the affected areas
d. Launch fund dedicated exclusively for serving the people in Ebola-affected areas
e. Create a position of Ombudsman to effectively manage financial aid
Social Effect
The fabric of social life has already been torn apart for the Ebola patients as they are being shunned even by their friends and families. In many cases, students who had recovered fully from the virus couldn't go back to schools, workers are avoiding fellow workers, and mobs are attacking quarantine centers, thus increasing the risk of the virus to infect more people. Many in these impoverished West African nations believe that the disease has been brought to their country by the foreign health care workers and, in recent weeks, there were incidents of attacks on foreign health care workers. The situation went to such alarming levels in some areas that Doctors Without Borders were forced to withdraw, albeit temporarily, from those areas. Many people came to think of quarantine centers as final destination of Ebola patients, and attacked such centers with increased frequency. Lack of education, primitive tribal customs and widely held superstitious belief are fueling animosity and hatred towards Ebola victims and caregivers alike. This, in turn, has created an explosive social situation in the region that needs to be addressed in a sensitive manner. U.N. agencies must engage with local entities including local governments and religious institutions to befriend a fearful populace and carry out a meaningful education campaign on Ebola virus.
Political Effect
In large part, the failure to stem the spread of Ebola virus is due to lack of any coherent policy by any of the affected nations in Western Africa, pointing to absence of a sustained and streamlined initiative by the political establishment of these nations. Democracy has not taken a strong root yet in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, making them vulnerable to social turmoil and instability. The unintended consequences of Ebola virus include a national emergency and nighttime curfew in Liberia, leading to suspension of some of the fundamental rights of the people. There is also strong possibility of regional political chaos, government instability and increased militant activity in the region. What is of particular concern is the real possibility of Ebola reaching to the northeast of Nigeria, a region with poor infrastructure and birthplace of Boko Haram rebel movement. If the virus spreads its tentacle in Borno state in Nigeria's northeast, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for international aid organizations to deploy their people in the northeast because of the security risks posed by Boko Haram rebels. U.N., African Union and ECOWAS, a regional group, need to take joint initiatives to provide necessary political and security support to Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.
Given the multidimensional impact of Ebola, it is moral responsibility for international community to stand firm in its commitment to provide all necessary help to besieged people of the region.
Economic Effect
A bleak and blighted economic future holds for the affected countries, especially for Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, as regular trade, commerce and free-flow of goods get stalled for months. Almost all the airlines have stopped flying to these three nations. There is already scarcity of agricultural produce, fruits, vegetables, meats and poultry in the affected regions, spiking the prices of basic commodities. Agricultural produces from Guinea's forested area in the southeast are already shunned, threatening the very livelihoods of subsistence farmers of the region. It's not if, but, how much the GDPs of these three nations will shrink in the short-term. It's anybody's guess how long the regional economy will be in a catastrophic morass and how deep the economic wound will inflict the region as the countries will be forced to stretch themselves thin by allocating more resources to stem the spread of the disease and treat the people sickened by the virus. The international community can't shirk its responsibility to address the issue anymore. World Bank should lead in establishing a multinational task force to:
a. Assess the scope of economic devastation due to Ebola
b. Calibrate a unified, comprehensive and collaborative response to the dire economic situation
c. Engage with financial institutions to streamline the process of disbursing cheap personal and business loans in the affected areas
d. Launch fund dedicated exclusively for serving the people in Ebola-affected areas
e. Create a position of Ombudsman to effectively manage financial aid
Social Effect
The fabric of social life has already been torn apart for the Ebola patients as they are being shunned even by their friends and families. In many cases, students who had recovered fully from the virus couldn't go back to schools, workers are avoiding fellow workers, and mobs are attacking quarantine centers, thus increasing the risk of the virus to infect more people. Many in these impoverished West African nations believe that the disease has been brought to their country by the foreign health care workers and, in recent weeks, there were incidents of attacks on foreign health care workers. The situation went to such alarming levels in some areas that Doctors Without Borders were forced to withdraw, albeit temporarily, from those areas. Many people came to think of quarantine centers as final destination of Ebola patients, and attacked such centers with increased frequency. Lack of education, primitive tribal customs and widely held superstitious belief are fueling animosity and hatred towards Ebola victims and caregivers alike. This, in turn, has created an explosive social situation in the region that needs to be addressed in a sensitive manner. U.N. agencies must engage with local entities including local governments and religious institutions to befriend a fearful populace and carry out a meaningful education campaign on Ebola virus.
Political Effect
In large part, the failure to stem the spread of Ebola virus is due to lack of any coherent policy by any of the affected nations in Western Africa, pointing to absence of a sustained and streamlined initiative by the political establishment of these nations. Democracy has not taken a strong root yet in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, making them vulnerable to social turmoil and instability. The unintended consequences of Ebola virus include a national emergency and nighttime curfew in Liberia, leading to suspension of some of the fundamental rights of the people. There is also strong possibility of regional political chaos, government instability and increased militant activity in the region. What is of particular concern is the real possibility of Ebola reaching to the northeast of Nigeria, a region with poor infrastructure and birthplace of Boko Haram rebel movement. If the virus spreads its tentacle in Borno state in Nigeria's northeast, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for international aid organizations to deploy their people in the northeast because of the security risks posed by Boko Haram rebels. U.N., African Union and ECOWAS, a regional group, need to take joint initiatives to provide necessary political and security support to Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.
Given the multidimensional impact of Ebola, it is moral responsibility for international community to stand firm in its commitment to provide all necessary help to besieged people of the region.
